AVIONICS INTELLIGENCE REPORT, 4 Jan. 2012. Aviation and avionics industry pundits forecast a year rife with change, growth, and innovation. Avionics Intelligence pledges to deliver valuable, insightful avionics news daily throughout 2012 and beyond. A new year brings with it a fresh start, new resolve, and untold opportunities. The Avionics Intelligence team, to keep pace with and anticipate industry trends, is launching a revamped Web site, publishing the industry e-newsletter weekly, announcing the availability of the Avionics Intelligence iPad app, and more. 2012 promises to be a year filled with growth, change, and innovation--and Avionics Intelligence will be there every step of the way.
Industry giants Airbus and Boeing forecast continued growth over the next two decades. The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) through 2030 projects that air traffic worldwide will more than double thanks in part to greater accessibility to flight services in emerging and traditional markets. More than 26,900 new passenger jetliners with a market value of $3.2 trillion will be needed to meet rising demand. Roughly 10,500 aircraft in the existing global fleet will be replaced by more eco-efficient models, such as the Airbus A320neo and A350 XWB, according to the report. Airbus anticipates demand, over the next 20 years, for 19,200 new aircraft for the single-aisle market segment, 6,425 new twin-aisle jetliners, and 1,331 Very Large Aircraft.
Among the factors cited as driving demand for new aircraft are: population growth, emerging economies, increased urbanization, the ongoing expansion of low-cost carriers, and the need to replace older aircraft with new eco-efficient models in established markets. The GMF also predicts that the greatest demand for passenger aircraft will come from airlines in the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and Germany.
Boeing’s forecast projects worldwide passenger traffic to average 5.1 percent growth and cargo traffic to average 5.6 percent growth. Further, the number of airplanes in the worldwide fleet will grow at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, nearly doubling from 19,400 airplanes today to more than 39,500 airplanes in 2030, according to Boeing officials. Airplane deliveries, for fleet growth and replacement of aging airplanes, will total 33,500 over the next 20 years, to the tune of $4.0 trillion. The Boeing forecast predicts changes in commercial aviation in response to market opportunities and challenges, including new airline business models and the growth of air travel in emerging economies. The greatest demand for new aircraft will come from the United States, followed by China, and the United Arab Emirates.
No matter what the new year brings, Avionics Intelligence will be there, reporting on industry trends and technologies.