FARNBOROUGH, England, 10 July 2012. Demand for passenger airline service worldwide will increase by 5 percent each year over the next two decades, which will require an additional 6,795 30-to-120-seat regional jets to fleets around the world, report officials of regional airliner specialist Embraer S.A. in São José dos Campos, Brazil.
Embraer officials made their predictions in the 2012 Embraer Market Outlook report, which they delivered Monday at the Farnborough International Airshow in Farnborough, England. The report measures demand in revenue passenger kilometers, or RPK. The additional passenger jets necessary over the next 20 years will be worth about $315 billion, Embraer officials say.
Replacing ageing aircraft will represent 53 percent of new deliveries of regional jets, and the rest will support air transport growth, Embraer officials say. The world regional jet fleet in service of 30 to 120-seat jets will increase from 4,150 aircraft in 2011 to 7,375 by 2031.
Growth in demand for passenger air service over the next two decades will be highest in Asia Latin America. By 2031, Asia Pacific and China will be the largest markets in the world, accounting for 34 percent of world airline miles flown, Embraer officials say.. Europe and North America will follow at 21 percent of passenger miles flown.
The strong pace of economic growth in Asia and Latin America, the rise of an urban middle class, economic growth in small and mid-sized cities, fuel prices, environmental concerns, increased airline competition, and the search for business efficiency will drive airline growth.
The Middle East will be the fastest-growing market with an annual growth rate of 7.2 percent in the next 20 years, followed by China and Latin America with 7 percent growth each, Embraer officials say. Next will be Asia Pacific at 5.8 percent growth, the Commonwealth of Independent States at 5.6 percent, and Africa 5.3 percent.
Developed economies in the West will grow at slower rates due to their market maturity and economic problems, Embraer officials say, predicting that North American passenger air traffic over the next two decades will grow at 3.2 percent, and Europe at 4.1 percent.
Passenger jets that seat 61 to 120 passengers enable airlines to make the most of operational efficiency and profitability by complementing or replacing larger jets, developing new markets, and expanding from smaller regional jets, Embraer officials say.
Passenger jets with 30 to 60 seats will continue to link low-mid density markets to hubs and to help develop regional aviation in emerging countries, Embraer officials say.
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