Posted by John Keller
MONTREAL, 17 June 2013. Worldwide commercial aviation demand for small- and medium-sized commercial aviation jets will be for 12,800 deliveries from 2013 to 2032, generating more than $646 billion in sales revenues, according to the Bombardier Aerospace Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast released Friday in anticipation of this week's Paris Air Show in Le Bourget, France.
Over the next two decades Bombardier analysts predict 250 deliveries of passenger aircraft with 20 to 59 seats; 5,650 deliveries of passenger aircraft with 60 to 99 seats; and 6,900 deliveries of passenger aircraft with 100 to 149 seats.
While the overall worldwide demand remains the same as the previous year, the regional distribution has been re-aligned with an expectation for below-average economic growth in North America and Europe, and for more robust growth in emerging markets, Bombardier analysts say.
From 2013 to 2032 the turboprop segment to deliver 2,700 aircraft, while n the 100- to 149-seat segment, demand will be driven by the availability of more fuel-efficient and technologically advanced aircraft types.
Strong projected traffic demand, an expanding middle class population in growth markets, and the continued relaxation of scope clauses during the forecast period, are the key driving forces behind Bombardier's 20-year commercial aircraft market forecast numbers, company officials say.
While demand from international markets such as India, China, Africa and Latin America are expected to increase significantly, North America is expected to remain the world's largest market in aircraft deliveries, taking an expected 3,710 new aircraft, followed by China and Europe with 2,330 and 1,700 aircraft, respectively.
Bombardier's Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast numbers predicts technical obsolescence and rising oil prices will be the most critical factors influencing airline fleet decisions over the next 20 years.
With the increasing demand for more cost effective and fuel efficient aircraft, 60 per cent of the current commercial fleet will be retired by 2032 with most of the retirements occurring in the smaller 20- to 59-seat segment.
Still, with increased worldwide interest in new generation technologies which allow for larger and more economical 60- to 149-seat aircraft solutions, and steady economic growth in developing markets, new aircraft demand is anticipated to remain strong.
For the commercial aircraft market, Bombardier provides the Q-Series NextGen, CRJ NextGen, and CSeries aircraft.
For more information contact Bombardier Aerospace online at www.bombardier.com.